Market Outlook
July 25, 2018
Market Cues
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Indian markets are likely to open flat tracking global indices and SGX Nifty.
BSE Sensex
0.3
106
36,825
U.S. stocks remain mostly positive in mid-day trading on Tuesday. The major
Nifty
0.4
50
11,134
averages are firmly in positive territory after ending the previous session mixed. The
Mid Cap
1.8
272
15,664
Dow Jones was up by 0.9% to 25,256 and the Nasdaq rose by 0.3% at 7,866.
Small Cap
2.2
351
16,219
U.K. stocks followed Asian peers higher on Tuesday after the State Council, China's
Bankex
(0.1)
(38)
29,954
cabinet, said the country would adopt a more 'vigorous' fiscal policy to support
the economy. The benchmark FTSE 100 was up by 0.6% to 7,703.
Global Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
On domestic front, Indian shares eked out modest gains to close at record highs on
Dow Jones
0.9
221
25,256
Tuesday following firm cues from Asia and Europe. The BSE Sensex was up by 0.3%
Nasdaq
0.3
25
7,866
to 36,825.
FTSE
0.6
48
7,703
News Analysis
Nikkei
0.5
113
22,510
UPL LTD - CMP:`633 TP: `680 Upside: 7.5%
Hang Seng
1.4
406
28,663
Shanghai Com
1.6
46
2,906
Detailed analysis on Pg2
Investor’s Ready Reckoner
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
Key Domestic & Global Indicators
Advances
1,955
1,093
Stock Watch: Latest investment recommendations on 150+ stocks
Declines
706
681
Refer Pg5 onwards
Unchanged
122
93
Top Picks
CMP
Target
Upside
Volumes (` Cr)
Company
Sector
Rating
(`)
(`)
(%)
BSE
2,742
Blue Star
Capital Goods
Buy
675
867
28.4
NSE
34,561
Dewan Housing Finance
Financials
Buy
615
720
17.0
Parag Milk Foods
Others
Buy
295
410
39.1
Bata India
Others
Accumulate
898
955
6.4
Net Inflows (` Cr)
Net
Mtd
Ytd
KEI Industries
Capital Goods
Buy
437
589
34.8
FII
335
(2,262)
-7,101
More Top Picks on Pg4
*MFs
(199)
5,512
74,115
Key Upcoming Events
Previous
Consensus
Top Gainers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Date
Region
Event Description
ReadingExpectations
Jul 25, 2018
Germany PMI Manufacturing
57.30
55.50
TEXRAIL
71
20.0
Jul 26, 2018
US
Initial Jobless claims
207.00
215.00
TWL
87
20.0
Jul 26, 2018
Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence
(0.60)
HCC
12
17.6
Jul 27, 2018
Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates
-
-
GLAXO
3151
13.9
Jul 30, 2018
US
GDP Qoq (Annualised)
2.00
4.20
More Events on Pg7
SUZLON
8
12.9
Top Losers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
GRANULES
92
-2.7
EMAMILTD
552
-2.6
PCJEWELLER
92
-2.2
INOXLEISUR
198
-2.0
HEROMOTOCO
3101
-2.0
As on July 24, 2018
Market Outlook
July 25, 2018
News Analysis
UPL LTD - CMP:`633
TP: `680
Upside: 7.5%
UPL Corporation Ltd, international arm of the UPL (United Phosphorus Ltd), has
entered into an agreement to acquire Arystra Lifesciences for US$4.2bn, making it
to Top 5 in the world. UPL will now have sales of US$5bn & 20%+EBDITA margins
(pre synergies).Transaction provides UPL a perfect match with powerful synergies
across geographies, crops and products, strengthened through best-in-class
manufacturing & differentiated R&D capabilities. Acquisition is funded part by
equity of US$1.2bn & Debt of US$3bn. It expects Net Debt/ EBDITA of 2.5-2.7x
after accounting for synergies V/s 3.2-3.5x as of now. On EPS front, the
transaction will add Rs10-12 in FY2020. The merger is expected to close in late
CY2018 and early CY2019. We recommend a HOLD.
Economic and Political News
Corporate News
Market Outlook
July 25, 2018
Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate
Hero Motor Ltd - July 25, 2018
Particulars (` cr)
1QFY19E
1QFY18
y-o-y (%)
4QFY18
q-o-q (%)
Sales
9,061
7,971
13.7
8,564
5.8
EBIDTA
1,443
1,295
11.4
1,370
5.3
%
15.9
16.3
16.1
PAT
1,009
914
10.4
967
4.3
Larsen & Toubro Ltd - July 25, 2018
Particulars (` cr)
1QFY19E
1QFY18
y-o-y (%)
4QFY18
q-o-q (%)
Sales
27,030
23,810
13.5
40,678
(33.6)
EBIDTA
2,577
3,450
(25.4)
6,967
(63.1)
%
9.5
14.5
17.2
PAT
1,242
1,028
20.8
3,337
(62.7)
Ambuja Cement Ltd - July 25, 2018
Particulars (` cr)
1QFY19E
1QFY18
y-o-y (%)
4QFY18
q-o-q (%)
Sales
2,891
6,298
(54.1)
6,459
(55.2)
EBIDTA
471
1,290
(63.5)
1,001
(52.9)
%
16.3
20.5
15.5
PAT
297
718
(58.6)
514
(42.2)
JSW Steel Ltd - July 25, 2018
Particulars (` cr)
1QFY19E
1QFY18
y-o-y (%)
4QFY18
q-o-q (%)
Sales
19,283
14,699
31.1
20,817
(7.4)
EBIDTA
4,764
2,617
82.1
5,290
(9.9)
%
24.7
17.8
25.5
PAT
2,061
624
230.2
2,879
(28.4)
BHEL Ltd - July 25, 2018
Particulars (` cr)
1QFY19E
1QFY18
y-o-y (%)
4QFY18
q-o-q (%)
Sales
6,221
5,505
13.1
10,416
(40.3)
EBIDTA
252
(88)
1,231
(79.5)
%
4.1
(1.6)
12.2
PAT
166
80
107.5
457
(63.7)
Market Outlook
July 25, 2018
Top Picks
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Favorable outlook for the AC industry to augur well
for Cooling products business which is out pacing
Blue Star
6,496
675
867
28.4
the market growth. EMPPAC division's profitability
to improve once operating environment turns
around.
With a focus on the low and medium income (LMI)
consumer segment, the company has increased its
Dewan Housing Finance
19,295
615
720
17.0
presence in tier-II & III cities where the growth
opportunity is immense.
Well capitalized with CAR of 18.1% which gives
sufficient room to grow asset base. Faster resolution
ICICI Bank
1,76,557
275
416
51.5
of NPA would reduce provision cost, which would
help to report better ROE.
High order book execution in EPC segment, rising
KEI Industries
3,423
437
589
34.8
B2C sales and higher exports to boost the revenues
and profitability
Expected to benefit from the lower capex
Music Broadcast Limited
1,712
300
475
58.3
requirement and 15 year long radio broadcast
licensing.
Strong brands and distribution network would boost
Siyaram Silk Mills
2,475
528
851
61.2
growth going ahead. Stock currently trades at an
inexpensive valuation.
GST regime and the Gujarat plant are expected to
Maruti Suzuki
2,96,653
9,820
10,619
8.1
improve the company’s sales volume and margins,
respectively.
We expect loan book to grow at 24.3% over next
GIC Housing
1,910
355
591
66.6
two year; change in borrowing mix will help in NIM
improvement
Third largest brand play in luggage segment
Increased product offerings and improving
Safari Industries
1,622
728
720
(1.1)
distribution network is leading to strong growth in
business. Likely to post robust growth for next 3-4
years
We expect financialisation of savings and
Aditya Birla Capital
30,818
140
218
55.7
increasing penetration in Insurance & Mutual fund
would ensure steady growth.
One of the leading Indian dairy products
companies in India created strong brands in dairy
products. Rising revenue share of high-margin
Parag Milk Foods
2,479
295
410
39.1
Value Added Products and reduction in interest cost
is likely to boost margins and earnings in next few
years.
We expect MCL to report net revenue CAGR of
~15% to ~`450cr over FY2018-20E mainly due to
strong growth in online matchmaking & marriage
Matrimony.com Ltd
1,643
723
1,016
40.5
related services. On the bottom-line front, we
expect a CAGR of ~28% to `82cr over the same
period on the back margin improvement.
HDFC Bank maintained its steady growth in the
4QFY18. The bank’s net profit grew by 20.3%.
Steady growth in interest income and other income
HDFC Bank
5,62,654
2,161
2,350
8.8
aided PAT growth. The Strong liability franchise and
healthy capitalisation provides strong earning
visibility. At the current market price, the bank is
trading at 3.2x FY20E ABV.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
July 25, 2018
Top Picks
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
We expect strong PAT growth on back of
healthy growth in automobile segment (on back
of new launches and facelifts in some of the
M&M
1,13,074
920
1,050
14.3
model ) and strong growth in Tractors segment
coupled by its strong brand recall and
improvement in rural sentiment
Market leader in the room air conditioner (RAC)
outsourced manufacturing space in India with a
market share of
55.4%. It is a one-stop
Amber Enterprises
2,814
925
1,230
31.4
solutions provider for the major brands in the
RAC industry and currently serves eight out of
the 10 top RAC brands in India
BIL is the largest footwear retailer in India,
offering footwear, accessories and bags across
brands. We expect BIL to report net PAT CAGR
of
~16% to
~`3115cr over FY2018-20E
Bata India
10,825
897
955
6.1
mainly due to new product launches, higher
number of stores addition and focus on
women’s high growth segment and margin
improvement
SHTF is in the sweet spot with benefits from
stronger CV volumes, NIMs unaffected by rising
Shriram Transport Finance
26,524
1,265
1,764
39.3
bond yields on the back of stronger pricing
power and an enhancing ROE by 750bps over
FY18-20E, supported by decline in credit cost.
We expect JSPL’s top line to grow at 27% CAGR
over FY19-FY20 on the back of strong steel
demand and capacity addition. On the bottom
Jindal Steel & Power Limited
17,737
195
350
91.3
line front, we expect JSPL to turn in to profit by
FY19 on back of strong operating margin
improvement.
GMM Pfaudler Limited (GMM) is the Indian
market leader in glass-lined (GL) steel
equipment. GMM is expected to cross CAGR
GMM Pfaudler Ltd
1,198
917
1,020
11.3
15%+ in revenue over the next few years
mainly led by uptick in demand from user
industries and it is also expecting to increase its
share of non-GL business to 50% by 2020.
Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals, amongst the
Indian Pharmaceutical companies, is well
placed to face the challenging generic markets,
given its focus on achieving growth through
Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals
34,102
592
780
34
productivity. Aurobindo will report net revenue
& net profit CAGR of ~13% & ~8% resp.
during FY2018-20E. Valuations are cheap V/s
its peers and own fair multiples of 17-18x.
Well planned strategy to grow small business
loans and cross-selling would propel fees
Yes Bank
89,231
384
435
12.4
income. We expect YES to grow its advance
much higher than industry and improvement in
asset quality to support profitability.
We believe advance to grow at a healthy CAGR
of 35% over FY18-20E. Below peers level ROA
RBL Bank
24,279
570
670
16.1
(1.2% FY18) to expand led by margin
expansion and lower credit cost.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
July 25, 2018
Fundamental Call
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
CCL is likely to maintain the strong growth
CCL Products
3,711
279
360
29.1
trajectory over FY18-20 backed by capacity
expansion and new geographical foray
We forecast Nilkamal to report top-line CAGR of
~9% to `2,635cr over FY17-20E on the back of
Nilkamal
2,567
1,720
2,178
26.6
healthy demand growth in plastic division. On the
bottom-line front, we estimate
~10% CAGR to
`162cr owing to improvement in volumes.
Elantas Beck India is the Indian market leader in
liquid insulation segment used in electrical
equipments like motors, transformers etc. It derives
Elantas Beck India Ltd
1,627
2,052
2,500
21.8
demand from several industries which are expected
to register 10%+ CAGR in demand in the coming
years.
Greenply Industries Ltd (GIL) manufactures plywood
& allied products and medium density fibreboards
(MDF). GIL to report net revenue CAGR of ~14% to
Greenply Industries
2,492
203
333
63.9
~`2,478cr over FY2017-20E mainly due to healthy
growth in plywood & lamination business on the
back of strong brand and distribution network
L&T Fin’s new management is on track to achieve
L&T Finance Holding
35,684
179
210
17.4
ROE of 18% by 2020 and recent capital infusion of
`3000cr would support advance growth.
Market Outlook
July 25, 2018
Key Upcoming Events
Global economic events release calendar
Bloomberg Data
Date
Time Country
Event Description
Unit
Period
Last Reported
Estimated
Jul 25, 2018
1:00 PMGermany
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Jul P
57.30
55.50
Jul 26, 2018
6:00 PMUS
Initial Jobless claims
Thousands
Jul 21
207.00
215.00
2:30 PMEuro Zone
Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence
Value
Jul F
(0.60)
Jul 27, 2018
5:15 PMEuro Zone
ECB announces interest rates
%
Jul 26
-
-
Jul 30, 2018
6:00 PMUS
GDP Qoq (Annualised)
% Change
2Q A
2.00
4.20
Jul 31, 2018
1:25 PMGermany
Unemployment change (000's)
Thousands
Jul
(15.00)
6:30 AMChina
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Jul
51.50
7:30 PMUS
Consumer Confidence
S.A./ 1985=100
Jul
126.40
125.50
2:30 PMEuro Zone
Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ)
% Change
2Q A
0.40
Aug 01, 2018
2:00 PMUK
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Jul
54.40
11:30 PMUS
FOMC rate decision
%
Aug 1
2.00
2.00
2:30 PMIndia
RBI Reverse Repo rate
%
Aug 1
6.00
2:30 PMIndia
RBI Repo rate
%
Aug 1
6.25
2:30 PMIndia
RBI Cash Reserve ratio
%
Aug 1
4.00
Aug 02, 2018
6:00 PMUS
Change in Nonfarm payrolls
Thousands
Jul
213.00
185.00
Aug 03, 2018
4:30 PMUK
BOE Announces rates
% Ratio
Aug 2
0.50
6:00 PMUS
Unnemployment rate
%
Jul
4.00
3.90
Aug 08, 2018
China
Exports YoY%
% Change
Jul
11.20
Aug 09, 2018
US
Producer Price Index (mom)
% Change
Jul
-
7:00 AMChina
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
% Change
Jul
1.90
Aug 10, 2018
5:30 PMIndia
Industrial Production YoY
% Change
Jun
3.20
6:00 PMUS
Consumer price index (mom)
% Change
Jul
0.10
2:00 PMUK
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Jun
0.80
2:00 PMUK
GDP (YoY)
% Change
2Q P
1.20
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Market Outlook
July 25, 2018
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
10.0
9.0
8.5
9.1
8.0
7.3
7.5
9.0
6.9
8.0
8.1
7.6
7.6
7.7
7.0
8.0
7.2
6.8
7.0
6.0
7.0
6.3
4.8
4.6
4.8
6.1
5.0
4.1
5.6
6.0
4.0
3.2
5.0
3.0
1.8
4.0
2.0
1.0
1.0
3.0
-
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
56.0
Mfg. PMI
Services PMI
(%)
6.0
54.0
5.2
5.1
5.0
4.9
4.9
52.0
5.0
4.4
4.6
4.3
50.0
4.0
3.6
3.3
3.3
48.0
3.0
2.4
46.0
2.0
44.0
1.0
42.0
40.0
-
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Imports yoy growth
(%)
Repo rate
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
35.0
6.50
30.0
6.00
25.0
5.50
20.0
5.00
15.0
4.50
10.0
4.00
5.0
0.0
3.50
(5.0)
3.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Market Outlook
July 25, 2018
Global watch
Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
8.0
6.9
7.0
5.8
6.0
5.3
5.0
5.0
1.1
3.7
4.0
2.5
3.0
2.2
1.8
2.0
1.5
1.4
0.8
1.0
0.3
-
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2017 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
6.7
6.8
7.0
6.0
5.4
5.2
5.0
3.7
4.0
3.0
1.8
2.2
2.0
1.7
1.6
1.5
2.0
0.7
0.7
1.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries
(x)
20.0
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Market Outlook
July 25, 2018
Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe
Returns (%)
Country
Name of index
Closing price
1M
3M
1YR
Brazil
Bovespa
77,996
8.1
(9.1)
19.2
Russia
Micex
4,326
1.4
7.1
11.4
India
Nifty
11,085
2.9
4.9
12.3
China
Shanghai Composite
2,860
0.5
(5.4)
(9.8)
South Africa
Top 40
50,481
0.5
(0.0)
5.8
Mexico
Mexbol
48,851
5.2
0.8
(5.3)
Indonesia
LQ45
937
3.3
(9.7)
(2.9)
Malaysia
KLCI
1,758
3.9
(6.4)
0.0
Thailand
SET 50
1,107
3.2
(6.7)
11.0
USA
Dow Jones
25,044
1.6
2.4
16.4
UK
FTSE
7,656
1.3
3.9
3.0
Japan
Nikkei
22,397
(0.7)
1.1
11.4
Germany
DAX
12,549
1.1
1.1
3.7
France
CAC
5,378
0.7
(0.4)
5.7
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Market Outlook
July 25, 2018
Exhibit 7: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Date Added
Top Picks/Fundamental
Stocks
Reco Price
Target/Revised Price
Current Status
06-07-2018
Top Picks
Aurobindo Pharma
603
780
Open
06-07-2018
Top Picks
RBL Bank
565
670
Open
06-07-2018
Top Picks
Yes Bank
348
418
Open
30-06-2018
Top Picks
Jindal Steel & Power
222
350
Open
20-06-2018
Top Picks
Shriram Transport Finance Com
1,466
1,764
Open
23-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
842
955
Open
01-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
862
948
18-06-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
779
896
14-06-2018
Top Picks
Amber Enterprises
1,026
1,230
Open
07-06-2018
Top Picks
M&M
918
1050
Open
04-05-2018
Top Picks
M&M
860
990
03-05-2018
Fundamental
L&T Finance Holding
171
210
Open
02-05-2018
Top Picks
HDFC Bank
1944
2315
Open
04-05-2018
Top Picks
Matrimony.com Ltd
810
1016
Open
20-04-2018
Top Picks
Matrimony.com Ltd
781
984
15-05-2018
Top Picks
Parag Milk Foods Limited
310
410
Open
16-04-2018
Top Picks
Parag Milk Foods Limited
249
333
29-06-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
932
1,020
Open
14-05-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
818
900
06-04-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
712
861
07-03-2018
Fundamental
Ashok Leyland Ltd
139
163
Closed (26/04/2018)
03-03-2018
Fundamental
Greenply Industries
340
395
Open
16-07-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
693
800
Open
16-04-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
651
750
21-02-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
532
650
31-05-2018
Top Picks
HSIL Ltd
348
Closed (31/05/2018)
16-02-2018
Top Picks
HSIL Ltd
433
510
07-02-2018
Fundamental
Elantas Beck India Ltd.
2155
2500
Open
01-02-2018
Top Picks
ICICI Bank
352
416
Open
01-02-2018
Top Picks
Aditya Birla Capital
167
218
Open
04-01-2018
Fundamental
CCL Products
278
360
Open
03-01-2018
Fundamental
Nilkamal Ltd
1880
2178
Open
01-01-2018
Fundamental
Capital First Ltd
693
850
Closed (15/01/2018)
30-12-2017
Fundamental
Shreyans Industries Ltd
205
247
Closed
Fundamental
Prism Cement Ltd
160
Closed (09/05/2018)
21-12-2017
Fundamental
Prism Cement Ltd
118
131
18-12-2017
Fundamental
Menon Bearings Limited
92
114
Closed (17/01/2018)
14-12-2017
Top Picks
Ruchira Papers Ltd.
188
244
Closed (09/02/2018)
17-05-2018
Top Picks
Century Plyboards India
280
Closed(17/05/2018)
28-11-2017
Top Picks
Century Plyboards India
317
400
19-12-2017
Top Picks
LT Foods
85
Closed(18/06/2018)
06-11-2017
Top Picks
LT Foods
74
96
16-10-2017
Fundamental
Endurance Technologies Ltd
1111
1277
Closed (01/12/2017)
11-09-2017
Top Picks
GIC Housing
533
655
Open
10-10-2017
Top Picks
Music Broadcast Limited
404
475
Open
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
July 25, 2018
Exhibit 8: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Date Added
Top Picks/Fundamental
Stocks
Reco Price
Target/Revised Price
Current Status
20-07-2017
Top Picks Music Broadcast Limited
368
434
07-07-2017
Fundamental L&T Finance Holdings Ltd
149
179
Closed (28/8/2017)
06-07-2017
Fundamental
Syngene International
478
564
Closed (1/3/2018)
05-07-2017
Top Picks
Maruti
7371
10619
Open
05-06-2017
Top Picks
Karur Vysya Bank
127
100
Closed (12/03/2018)
23-05-2018
Top Picks
KEI Industries
481
589
Open
04-01-2017
Top Picks
KEI Industries
125
485
31-05-2018
Top Picks
Alkem Lab
1978
Closed (31/05/2018)
01-12-2016
Top Picks
Alkem Lab
1700
2441
17-10-2016
Top Picks
Asian Granito
267
534
Closed (18/02/2018)
17-05-2018
Top Picks
TV Today Network
460
Closed (17/05/2018)
04-08-2016
Top Picks
TV Today Network
297
603
05-04-2016
Top Picks
DHFL
189
720
Open
25-06-2018
Top Picks
Navkar Corporation
207
Closed(25/06/2018)
05-01-2016
Top Picks
Navkar Corporation
207
265
Open
08-12-2015
Top Picks
Blue Star
357
867
Open
30-10-2015
Top Picks
Siyaram Silk Mills
186
851
Open
Source: Company
Market Outlook
July 25, 2018
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
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